42nd & Grace

For those who are looking longingly at the recent polls that suggests a change in the provincial government is inevitable, see Pierre Poilievre. 

As former British prime minister Harold Macmillan reportedly said: events, dear boy, events. And British Columbia has plenty of those. 

It’s quite possible to see a scenario that in the next election where orange, blue and green are all led by new standard bearers. 

The government has introduced a budget that was described as the least popular since the HST. Spoiler alert, that premier did not face the electorate again. The opposition has started tagging Ravi Kahlon and Niki Sharma, the two most-likely successors, in ads attacking the budget sensing a change is afoot.

But it’s not just the budget that suggests Premier Eby may pull the pin on his own leadership. The debacle over the federal government’s agreement with the Musqueam First Nation is sign of dysfunction and disinterest in his own office. The mind boggles at the idea a premier was sent to an event like that without a briefing. The helter skelter response was further confirmation that the time is almost up.

I don’t know Premier Eby well, but I’ve always known him to be one who is well-briefed and sharp in attack. That passion seems to be waning. As we’ve seen before, a change can rescue a party when done at right time.

On the Conservative side, nine remain in the running to lead the blue team – though I suspect that number will be winnowed further before the vote.

It’s interesting to watch most of the candidates reject a coalition of voters who could see them through to victory. So far the attitude is: yeah, we want your vote but you can’t be a member. Is this a Trojan horse maneuver where its win now and tack a different course for the general population during the writ? Maybe for some but for others it’s definitely a purity test. 

No matter what they profess now, the majority of those running have had some association with the BC Liberals. That was coalition was successful because they found common ground – starting with the need to replace the NDP.  After the leadership race is over, the party will be dramatically larger and diverse. Everyone is going to need to accept that. 

Emily Lowan has breathed new energy into the Green Party and faces a similar challenge: how does she broaden her base. To her credit, she has a plan and is vigorously trying to reach new voters with a distinct philosophical bent. Not sure it’s a winning option, kudos for trying it. 

In all likelihood, the choice of who will govern will come down to Team Orange or Team Blue, with new leadership for each. And there will be a lot of events until then.